A year after the peak, operators that sell power today are down 29 percent, while developers whose revenue is years away are down 82 percent. The split follows the discount rate, and Oklo still holds most of the cash it raised near the top.
Oklo's Q3 10-Q (Nov 6) moves its cash further out, which fits your discount-rate arithmetic. The Q2 10-Q said the target was "deploying our first powerhouse in 2028"; the Q3 filing says "in 2028-2029". On the cash point, the $3.13B of cash and securities at Sept 30 came largely from ATM sales this year: 32.6M shares for $2.29B gross, at average net prices of $96.95, then $55.64, then $39.30 on the program opened in September. So the first half was raised near the top and the newest money costs about 2.5 times as many shares per dollar. Data: Oklo 10-Q filings, processed by Equibles.
So both levers are working at once. On our arithmetic, a one-year delay at a 10% discount rate takes about 9% off the value of the plan. Dilution is getting costlier too: at $25.25, the price we used, new money would take almost four times as many shares per dollar as the first ATM tranche at $96.95. The cash buys time, but the price of that time keeps rising.
Oklo's Q3 10-Q (Nov 6) moves its cash further out, which fits your discount-rate arithmetic. The Q2 10-Q said the target was "deploying our first powerhouse in 2028"; the Q3 filing says "in 2028-2029". On the cash point, the $3.13B of cash and securities at Sept 30 came largely from ATM sales this year: 32.6M shares for $2.29B gross, at average net prices of $96.95, then $55.64, then $39.30 on the program opened in September. So the first half was raised near the top and the newest money costs about 2.5 times as many shares per dollar. Data: Oklo 10-Q filings, processed by Equibles.
So both levers are working at once. On our arithmetic, a one-year delay at a 10% discount rate takes about 9% off the value of the plan. Dilution is getting costlier too: at $25.25, the price we used, new money would take almost four times as many shares per dollar as the first ATM tranche at $96.95. The cash buys time, but the price of that time keeps rising.